A Concept of Time: Standard textbooks on historical geology were used in this chapter. The idea of visualizing time in progressively increasing increments was used by C. R. Pellegrino in his book, Time Gate: Hurtling Backward through History.
Plate Tectonics: The basic information is provided in textbooks, some of which are cited. The plate tectonics of California for the past thirty million years has been worked out by Tanya Atwater of the University of California Santa Barbara, William R. Dickinson of the University of Arizona, and many others. Atwater has produced a video, included in this book as Figure 2-8.
Earthquake Basics: Most of this is based on textbooks in structural geology and seismology. For structural geology, see Yeats et al. (1997), and for seismology, see Bolt (2004), Brumbaugh (1999), and Hough (2002); these textbooks discuss the subjects at a very basic level, suitable for the nonscientist. GPS is too new to be featured in a textbook except for Yeats et al. (1997). I received help from Meghan Miller, then of Central Washington University, and Herb Dragert of Pacific Geoscience Centre. Bill Bakun of the USGS reviewed the section on the use of intensities to determine magnitudes of pre-instrumental earthquakes, a technique he developed with Carl Wentworth, also with the USGS.
The Subduction Zone: The Big One: The major contributors to the recognition of the Cascadia Subduction Zone as a major earthquake source have been acknowledged in the text of this chapter. In addition to Brian Atwater, Harvey Kelsey of Humboldt State University, Curt Peterson of Portland State University, Mark Darienzo, then of Oregon Emergency Management, John Clague of Simon Fraser University, and Chris Goldfinger of Oregon State University have contributed much to an understanding of the Cascadia Subduction Zone thrust. Native American oral traditions about earthquakes are being collected by Ruth Ludwin of the University of Washington and Deborah Carver of Humboldt State University. Bob Dziak of NOAA and OSU contributed information about SOSUS, the hydrophone arrays to detect earthquakes at sea.
Earthquakes in the Juan de Fuca Plate: Bob Crosson of the University of Washington was one of the first to recognize earthquakes in the Juan de Fuca Plate beneath Puget Sound. Others contributing much to the understanding of these earthquakes include Ken Creager of the University of Washington, Anne Tréhu of Oregon State University, and Roy Hyndman of the Pacific Geoscience Centre. Ivan Wong of URS Greiner and Associates shared his ideas about why Oregon lacks large slab earthquakes. Newspaper stories collected by Kathy Troost and Derek Booth helped me write the account of the Nisqually Earthquake. Accounts of the 1949 and 1965 earthquakes were based on archives of the Seattle Times.
Earthquakes in the Crust: Closer to Home: Although the principal contributors to an understanding of Puget Sound faulting are acknowledged in the text, the earliest contribution was the work of Howard Gower and Jim Yount of the USGS in the 1980s. I learned much from Brian Sherrod about the Seattle Fault and Toe Jam Hill Fault, both in e-mail exchanges and in the field; a field trip led by Sherrod and by Harvey Kelsey and Alan Nelson was also instructive. Ian Madin of DOGAMI was principally responsible for mapping the active faults of the Portland Basin, and my students Paul Crenna, Erik Graven, Tom Popowski, and Ken Werner mapped the faults of the Willamette Valley and Tualatin Valley. Scott Burns of Portland State University helped my understanding of landslides in western Oregon and Washington. Chuck Newell provided me his unpublished history of the discovery of the Mist Gas Field. The main contributors along the coast were Chris Goldfinger of Oregon State University, Lisa McNeill, now of Southampton University, Pat McCrory of the USGS, and Gary Carver of Humboldt State University. Ruth Ludwin reviewed the section in the second edition on the 1872 Entiat Earthquake and contributed Native American stories possibly related to the last Seattle Fault earthquake. Bob Bentley of Central Washington University argued for active faulting in the Yakima Fold Belt at a time when that view was unpopular. Steve Reidel, now of Washington State University at Richland, added much to my understanding of the Yakima Fold belt. Ray Weldon and Silvio Pezzopane of the University of Oregon have been responsible for mapping the normal faults of eastern Oregon, building on earlier work by Takashi Nakata of Hiroshima University.
Memories of the Future: The Uncertain Art of Earthquake Forecasting: An analysis of the Iben Browning prediction of an earthquake at New Madrid, Missouri was done by William Spence of the USGS. Several of California’s “earthquake sensitives” were interviewed by Clarke (1996). The Brady prediction for Lima, Peru, was the subject of a book by Olson (1989). Ma et al. (1990) discussed earthquake prediction in China; an evaluation of these predictions is provided by Bolt (2004), among others. Ren Junjie and Xu Xiwei of the China Earthquake Administration added insights to the earthquakes of Shanxi and Shaanxi counties, including information about cliff dwellings (yaodongs) that collapsed in the earthquake of 1556, resulting in the greatest losses of life in any earthquake in history. The pros and cons of the VAN method of earthquake prediction were reviewed by Seiya Uyeda (pro) and Dave Jackson and Yan Kagan (con) (1998) in the Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, with references to earlier work. The controversy over our ever being able to predict earthquakes has been presented by Robert Geller, Chris Scholz, and Lowell Whiteside, among others. Probabilistic and deterministic forecasting was based on Clarence Allen’s chapter in Yeats et al. (1997). C. Allin Cornell, Art Frankel, Tom Hanks, Ellis Krinitzky, David Boore, Robin McGuire, and the late Bill Joyner have contributed much to this field. A good general reference is Reiter (1990). An unpublished report that helped me was “Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: A Beginner’s Guide,” by Tom Hanks and Allin Cornell. The emerging field of stress triggering of earthquakes has benefited from the work of Ruth Harris, Bob Simpson, and Bill Ellsworth of the USGS, Steve Jaumé of the College of Charleston and Lynn Sykes of Columbia University, Dave Bowman of California State University at Fullerton, and Geoff King of Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, in addition to Ross Stein, cited in the chapter. The possibility of earthquake forecasting using both long- and short-term precursors was explained to me by Mike Kozuch of the New Zealand Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences, who shared a house with me in Wellington in 1999. An earlier version of the chapter was reviewed by Clarence Allen, Bill Ellsworth, and Tom Hanks.
Solid Rocks and Bowls of Jello: My understanding of liquefaction and lateral spreading is largely based on the work of Obermeier (1996) of the USGS. Earthquake-induced landslides have been described by Keefer (1984) and Jibson (1996). Articles in the Seattle Times were the source of the description of landslides during the Nisqually Earthquake. The chapter in the first edition was reviewed by Eldon Gath and Steve Obermeier.
Tsunami! I learned much from Lori Dengler and the publications of Satake (1992) and Bernard et al. (1991). Harry Yeh and Dan Cox of Oregon State University have advised me on tsunamis, based on their research in the Hinsdale Tsunami Research Lab at OSU. The submarine landslides generating tsunamis accompanying the 1964 Alaska Earthquake were described by Hampton et al. (1993). The effect of the tsunami in Seward and Valdez, Alaska, is based on the account by Nance (1988). I used the archives of the Seattle Times to follow the 1964 tsunami down the coast of Vancouver Island, Washington, and Oregon, supplemented by work by John Clague. The book by Griffin (1984) presents the story of the tsunami at Crescent City in the words of those who survived it. The 1960 tsunami is discussed in Atwater et al. (1999). George Priest of DOGAMI provided information about the Oregon tsunami hazard mitigation program. Information about tsunami hazard mitigation was obtained from the NOAA web site and from Lori Dengler, who has been active in tsunami mitigation in California. An earlier version of the chapter was reviewed by Hal Mofjeld and Frank Gonzalez of NOAA, Lori Dengler of Humboldt State University, and Kenji Satake, now of the University of Tokyo. The section on seiches benefited greatly from the advice of Aggeliki Barberopoulou, now of the University of Southern California, Ed Waddington of the University of Washington, and Hal Mofjeld of NOAA.
Earthquake Insurance: Betting Against Earthquakes: The Western States Seismic Policy Council publication on the Earthquake Insurance Summit was very useful, as was a conference in 1996 sponsored by the Southern California Earthquake Center. I used information from a California Dept. of Conservation publication (1990), and an insurance-industry perspective of political issues involving earthquake insurance was provided by a publication by the Insurance Services Office (1996). The story of the CEA was ably told from the Department of Insurance perspective by Richard J. Roth, Jr., and from the consumer’s perspective by the United Policyholders’ publication, What’s UP. The CEA’s viewpoint was given by Mark Leonard. The relationship between damage to homes by the Northridge Earthquake and the age of construction was worked out by Richard Roth, Jr. I learned about the New Zealand earthquake insurance story from David Middleton of the New Zealand Earthquake Commission; Kelvin Berryman of the New Zealand Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences explained the effect of the Christchurch earthquakes on insurance rates. The chapter was reviewed by Jack Watts of State Farm Insurance Co., Richard Roth, Jr. of the State Dept. of Insurance, Amy Bach of United Policyholders, Joan Scofield of the Washington State Insurance Commissioner’s office, and David Middleton of the New Zealand Earthquake Commission.
Is Your Home Ready for an Earthquake? I began with Sunset Magazine’s two-part series on earthquake protection, published in 1990 after the Loma Prieta Earthquake. Other useful references are Lafferty and Associates (1989), a booklet by the California Seismic Safety Commission (1992), and publications by the Office of Emergency Services. For wood stoves and propane tanks, I used information from “Living on Shaky Ground,” by the Humboldt Earthquake Information Center. Roger Faris, who conducted classes in seismic retrofits of Seattle homes, was an important resource, as was Inés Pearce of the City of Seattle.
Earthquake Design of Large Structures: I received much information from Tom Miller, a structural engineer at Oregon State University, who provided me with the information from AIA/ACSA Council on Architectural Research. Bolt (2004) was also useful. Yousef Bozorgnia was first author of a publication on advances in earthquake engineering that is in press.
The Federal Government and Earthquakes: Geschwind (2001) and Bob Wallace’s oral history (Scott, 1999) presented the background to the establishment of NEHRP, and the early days of NEHRP legislation and presidential declarations are detailed in the report by the Office of Technology Assessment (1995), for which I was an advisor. Reports by Hanks (1985) and Page et al. (1992) provide insights into the USGS role in NEHRP. Examples of how the USGS responded to a major earthquake are provided by Plafker and Galloway (1989) and USGS (1996). The early history of the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network benefited from an unpublished history of the Department of Geological Sciences at the University of Washington by the late Julian D. Barksdale and additional insights by Robert Crosson and Ruth Ludwin. The history of the Canadian program is based on a summary by Cassidy et al. (2003).The chapter in the first edition was reviewed by Robert Hamilton, who was there for much of the beginning of NEHRP. An earlier version of this chapter was reviewed by Ian MacGregor of NSF and Craig Weaver of USGS. Mark Stevens of FEMA reviewed parts of the chapter.
The Role of State and Local Government: For the Division of Mines and Geology, now the California Geological Survey, the memoirs of Olaf Jenkins (1976) and Gordon Oakeshott (1989) were useful as well as the account by Geschwind (2001). Bill Bryant and Bob Sydnor also provided me information. Geschwind was also the best source for the legislative history of state involvement in earthquake preparedness, starting with the 1933 earthquake and continuing through the establishment of Alquist-Priolo and other legislative acts. Web sites for OES and the Seismic Safety Commission were very useful. Problems with the Alquist-Priolo Act were described in a series in the Los Angeles Times by Rong-Gong Lin and his colleagues and conversations with Eldon Gath of Earth Consultants International in their discussions about two developments in Hollywood. I also benefited from discussions with John Parrish, California state geologist, and Lucile Jones of USGS, who spent a year in the office of the Mayor of Los Angeles advising him about making his city resilient against large earthquakes, including a magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault. I received a lot of help in understanding building codes from Walter Friday of Linhart Petersen Powers Associates. Diane Murbach of the City of San Diego was a great help in getting me information about California grading ordinances. Tim Walsh, Karl Wegmann, and Pat Pringle of the Washington Division of Geology and Earth Resources provided information about the Growth Management Act and Washington’s response to earthquakes. Inés Pearce of the City of Seattle and JoAnn Jordan of the City of Bellevue provided information about earthquake programs in those cities. The chapter in the first edition was reviewed by Eldon Gath of Earth Consultants International, who has worked under California regulations for his entire career; and Earl Hart of the Division of Mines and Geology, who was involved in carrying out the provisions of the Alquist-Priolo Act almost from the beginning. Bill Steele of the University of Washington introduced me to many people in Washington who have been responsible for the success of the earthquake program there, in addition to providing his own insights.
Preparing for the Next Earthquake: See references for Chapter 12. Publications arising from Seattle’s Project Impact were very useful.
An Uncertain Appointment with a Restless Earth: The Cost of Doing Nothing. The summary by CREW and the resilience surveys done by the states of Oregon and Washington formed the basis of this chapter. I learned about the resiliency surveys from Ian Madin, chief scientist of the Dept. of Geology and Mineral Industries.
Appendix A. Table of Significant Earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest. Compilations for California by Bill Bakun, Lori Dengler, Bill Ellsworth, Ruth Ludwin, and Tousson Toppozada, and the table of earthquakes with surface rupture from Yeats et al. (1997), were used to prepare this table. I learned about earthquakes in Canada from John Cassidy of the PGC and earthquakes on the Blanco Fracture Zone from Bob Dziak of NOAA.